Markets closed positive but overall a flat market. As expected banks rallied but most of the sectors remained very range bound with not much of activity. Nifty may test the levels 3135 and 3405 if the pull back continues. These levels are the retracement levels of the previous trend. For the pull back to sustain Nifty needs to sustain above 2970. Exit long positions if Nifty closes below 2900.

Nifty crosses resistance... Will it sustain??

Nifty has managed not only to cross and close above it resistance line but also the 3 months average price. This was being tested for quiet some time in the last few days.

More positive triggeres for market to continue this rally... crude near 118$ and below that would be good for further fall. All global markets are positive.

As mentioned earlier above 4520 we can buy alot of stocks and hold for short term.

If nifty reverses from here we could see major selling and stocks getting beaten up. So safe to use stop loss for all trades.

View and stocks for the coming week starting 4th August

Nifty for the second time in last few days has closed near the upper trend line. Now sustaining above 4443 we could expect some upside and close above 4520 could lead to a new rally. So safe to enter stocks and nifty the day it close above 4520 levels.

Again a reversal from here would mean 4200-4000 and alot of beating in stocks which had left gaps. But it would continue as a range bound market for some more time and could break on either side again. I personally feel that breaking 4000 would not be possible as of now.

With the IAEA approving the nuclear deal and power sector reforms announced with just 17ooo crores, we would see a strong monday. Power stocks should be the focus still. Kalpataru power, NTPC, Areva, Walchand nagar, Power grid, PTC...

Balrampur chinni cmp 89. All moving averages converged and has broken all. Expect rally to continue upto 92-96 and may be 103 also. Close above 104 would see previous high. Should exit if closes below 84. This year there is a 40 m tonn shortage of sugar which may continue till december. With the festiv season on the head in coming weeks sugar consumption increases and also the prices and the 3rd and 4th quarter results of sugar companies are generally good.


Religare enterprises is still on my watch out list. Amazing accumulation happening. I love these kind of stocks because when they break out the returns are fantastic. Initially i was expecting 10-15% in this script on break out, but as days are passing I feel i would hold it for much longer. Either some thing positive is cooking in this sector or this company. So watch out for movement in this company or just accumulate and wait.
Edilweiss capital and india info line also would give break out soon. Indiainfo line buy above 720 SL 707 Target 740-766



Ambuja cements forming an inverted head and shoulder. Watch out and on confirmations buy for 88-93-97-102. Exit if closes below 81. Enter only above 86.
Other Cement stocks have not really shown strength but the results of India cement is fantastic and we could expect other companies also so show decent returns.

If market remains in positive trend then track the list of stocks mentioned below and enter above the levels mentioned and use stoploss in case market reverses or stop loss gets hit. Sensex above 15100 needs to sustain and close above it. If not we could again see a reversal. So over all be careful, use stop loss and regulate your volumes.

Buy DLF above 530 stop loss 520 Target 550-565-600
Buy Escorts cmp 86 Stoploss 83 target 92-96
Buy Everest kanto cmp 312 stoploss 303 Target 340-360
Federal bank above 206 Target 212-218-224 SL 202
Indiainfo line buy above 720 SL 707 Target 740-766
Ispat ind buy above 29 Target 33-35 SL 27.50
JP HYDRO Target 65 sl 54 cmp 56
Jet Air cmp 501 Target 540 SL 490
Mangalore chem & Fert cmp 22.80 Target 25-27-30 SL 21
Nagarjuna fert above 41.60 Target 45 sl 40.80
Parsvnath above 119 Target 124-133 SL 116
Praj Ind above 193 Target 196-202-206 SL 190
Punj LLoyd cmp 281 Target 310-315 SL 276

It is not necessary you trade all the time. Trade when the levels meet and you are confident. In case of any doubt its always better not to trade.

1st August

Nifty needs to cross and sustain above 4360 for further movement. 4480 would be a strong resistance above which markets would gain alot of strength.

After UPA trust vote banking, insurance and power sector reforms were expected. A little later than expected but "Govt approves Rs 17,033 cr for power reforms". Power stocks should be the focus again.

Insurance sector reforms would be really good for banking companies into insurance like ICICI and SBI. The real value unlocking would happen then. So watch out for those reforms for fantastic returns from that sector.

Stock wise watch out for SBI BOB Bank of Rajasthan, AB NUVO, Hindustan Zinc for strong moves. Take positions only above thursdays high. Stop loss of 2%.

Market view for 31st July

Nifty still continues to be in the range of 3800-4450. If it manages to close above 4450 for 2-3 days then the upside would be possible upto 5000.

With crude falling and global markets rising since last two days, we may see more pull back. Market had fallen due to unexpected repo rate hike. The impact of that would definitely be negative but on the other hand Govt. is expected to announce banking, insurance and power sector reforms which may boost the market again.

With the announcement of reforms we are expecting markets to pull back 10-15% which would be an exit level taking decent profits in the short term.

Nifty - 4600 or 4200??

Nifty failed to sustain above the trend line level of 4500. There for we saw the profit booking. Sensex also failed to sustains above 15100.

Coming days we need to watch out for its movement. It could test 4330 and 4200 as of now. Below that we may be heading towards 4000 and 3800 again. Alot of gaps in stocks may be filled and that could support the market.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Am sure every one is reading about it. A little of my view on it. These two companies control 60% of the mortgage market of USA. The total value of this is 5.5 trillion dollar. Double of Indians economy.

Now a bank in india needs to maintain 12% as capital of its total credit. Thats the minimum and there for indian banks are well regulated. Fannie and Freddie have just 80 billion $ in capital against 5.5 trillion as credits. Which works out to less than 2%. At the current juncture I dont think its easy for Fed also to come forward with any saving option for them.

US as such is in a soup for sure. but they do have huge gold reserves. Matter to time. coming few quarters they should be able to solve issues. The property prices there have fallen drastically. The price one would pay for a property in india, he would get two in US. more over theirs is a developed economy. so over time it would still be a good bet and i expect US to come out of this in a few year or may be months also.

Sensex Gap

Sensex has a gap at 15390. Above 15100 sensex will pull up further. But 15400 levels would be crucial to watch out. Above that 15700 where we should consider maximum profit booking or exiting longs or keep stop loss.
Reversal from there would be likely. Caution on all rises is necessary.

UPA back Markets up 850 points.... what next.

As expected if the UPA would come back markets had to rally. Most of the stocks rallied. ADAG stocks rallied an average of 15%. Larsen BHEL DLF. Alot of mid caps were really god. Power grid did 104. My next target is 118 stoploss close below 98.

What worries me, this rally or pull back to be clear will not sustain for long. The movement would be very sector specific and banks and power stocks would be the focus. Larsen, BHEL, NTPC, and many many more stocks have a huge gap. The gaps would definately be filled in coming days. The question is when? so be prepared to see panic again.

Reliance communications may go up further 7-10% but at the same time would be little risky. Alstom, Areva, Power grid, NTPC would still be safer bet as of now.

Crude has cooled off alot and near 125$. Close below 129 this was expected. A very stong support at 118. If reverses then we will see equity markets getting beaten up again.