Market View (21-07-07)

The level of 4685 is a crucial resistance level next. Its the level of fibo 1.618 and it also corrosponds with the resistance channel level. This levels should be achieved in coming 1-2 weeks from where profit booking would be seen.

A channel beganing from the high of 2006 connecting the high of January/Feb 2007 and high of July 2007, shows that NIFTY is near its resistance.
Now, this happens to be a crucial level. One can expect a correction from here upto levels of 4300-4250. On break of this resistance line can lead to a further rally upto 4650.
Today I would like to give views for traders and investors on technical and fundamental grounds.
From Feb of this year we have seen market in a negative mode till May end. There after market started rallying but no retail investor or trader has made money. Its now after the Infosys results when market has seen a good movement, I seen targets being given for stocks which are 10-25% up from here. A stock which has already seen a rally would not necessarily rise so much. Stick to stock specific moves from here with stoploss. Mid caps will continue to rise, mid caps have seen a sluggish movement for last year and a half. Even if Nifty sees small correction, it may not pull the market down over all. certain stocks would tank which are over heated.

Market View (05-07-07)

Market took a dip to correct to its weekly averages. Reliance did dip but not ONGC. Its still safer to be stock specific in sectors like cement, banks, engg. Avoid huge quantities and use stoplosses. Upside in Nifty above 4370 is 4444. Market may face resistance any time and take a dip upto 4200-4140 levels on small negative news also. The reason being volatility and stock specific movement which is generally not a good sign.

ONGC - May decide the market trend as well

ONGC has closed near a very crucial support today. On break of 858 levels tomorrow a fall upto 790-800 and 750 levels will be seen. However, a bounce back from current levels would mean a rally upto 970-1000 range. Now ONGC has the highest weightage on the Index, which means, it will be one of the deciding factors for the market in the coming days. As you know we are also bearish on Reliance which is another biggie, Market would be extremely volatile/risky in coming days. It is advisable to be very stock specific in trades, use stoploss and avoid delivery for long term. Play with swings or buy stocks which are really low valued and will not be affected much in 1000 points fall or so.

Gustav...

Market View (4-07-07)

As expected and said yesterday an intraday correction seen on nifty. though sensex was stable with the help of cement sector. A further fall on nifty upto 4325 is possible tough not necessary.
Also as said yesterday Mid cap index made a high of 6075 exactly as said and then corrected. Some consolidation will be seen in this before a fresh rally, also possibility of a mild correction. One should look at construction stocks like Sobha, Parsnath, IBulls before DLF listing tomorrow. If DLF lists +ve or with good margin then all stocks will rise. Construction stocks gained back and are in action. Further steam is left in this sector.
IT should be avoided till infosys' quarterly results are out. Reliance continues to look weak for the coming weeks. Should avoid longs in this and rather go short in this above 1750 levels.

Arvind Mills

Arvind Mills was recommend for delivery on Tuesday at 45 for target of 52-55-60. Currently its trading at 49. It is sustains above on weekly basis it can rise further upto 82-88 levels in coming months. Last week some soaps were given to the textile sector which has been lying dull since last few months.

Petronet LNG

Buy Petronet LNG above 60 for 68-72 Stoploss 57.

Reliance - Not a bull any more

It may be shocking to most of the bulls here, people may think I have gone out of my senses but the fact remains that Reliance Industries is not strong for a longer period. Reliance was stable in the early months of 2007 when market was volatile and it remained bullish for rest of the time. Considering its quarterly results which would be out soon, I expect Reliance to consolidate/fall from levels of 1750-1800 to levels of 1570, 1430 and 1310.
First of all I do not call this kind of market a bull run. A run in which selective stocks move cannot never be a bull market. Its more a stock specific market driven by news and speculation. It cannot hold good for long and the ultimate Fundamentals have to come into play.
One can use part of the profits made in this rally to buy Put Options of Reliance of 1600-1640 and roll over. This way you would not be putting your capital at stake but just part of the profits.

Market View (3-07-07)

Markets have been making new high everyday since last few days. Most of the sectors are moving up and stocks which had not moved up have also started their journey. Is this the begning of a new rally or just going towards the end of the upper channel of this range bound market? In my view market is still range bound with upper target in the range of 15100-15400 with lower level of the channel being seen at 13500. One should be very stock specific in this market and book profits on all rises and use strict stoploss. Soon we would be seeing Infosys' results whcih does not seem to be too strong due to weak dollar. thought market seems to have already discounted that, we should still be prepared to book out in all longs and wait for a dip/opportunity if the market gives a signal of weakness. Last two days of rally may be followed by a small intraday correction tomorrow seeing levels of 14400-500.
Cement, banks and selected mid cap stocks still look good to me which i would be holding on to for some more days. Stoploss for all these scipts would be 4280 on Nifty.

DSK, Patel, Era and Sobha

All recommendations give have started moving, era given above 380 is now 450 (10% up), DSK hits 3rd consecutive upper at 271.40, Sobha made an intraday high of 985. Use trailing stoploss for all recommendations.

Micap Index

With the indexes making new highs everyday the mid cap index has seen a consistantly good rally. Its now close to its upper target of 161% at 6074 where it may face some resistance and under go consolidation before a fresh rally starts.

Sobha Developers

Sobha Developers looks strong above 940 levels. Buy for target of 1088 with stoploss at 910. Among all construction stocks I prefer Sobha for their presence in cities which are still coming up and not saturated and also for the kind of project they take. Longer term target of this stock is 1300.

Mahanagar Telecom

MTNL is a good stock to buy from a long term perspective. A close above 190 would be a good breakout and a perfect level to enter. till then its in a range of 130-185 levels. It can make new highs to 260 and 350 in coming months.

Patel Engineering

Patel Engineering on a weekly close above 425 would rally to 650 and 725 with a longer term target of 1000. Stop loss for long at 390.